In this country, Indonesia, the open market economic policies (read: neoliberalisme) has been considered to be the only one sect the right economic medicine for the ongoing crisis. Wrapped neatly with a veil Pancasila economy. Neoliberalisme have been placed as filosopi, policies and practices so that the major economic as though there is no other alternative outside the system. Thus, policy-neoliberalisme is regarded as economic formula that is required to apply fully in the various economic lines. That is done by the next Government of SBY-JK and the supporting economists.

Unfortunately can not be denied, can not be hit. Policy is precisely to bring the condition of the economy-as one of the countries that run the "economic prescription" Washington consensus [1] - fall in the ravine that the economic crisis in. Similar conditions clearly visible in many other countries the concept of open market economy (economic free market), which is the main creditor countries that receive assistance with the capital requirements to run the package market policies. However, the concept of a market economy is expected to build economic sustainability (sustainability development) would make creditor countries (like Indonesia) and the debtor must continue to continue to pay off debt (debt sustainable). This is because the whole package of economic policies is not given (allowed) to build the capacity of national industry creditors to grow and develop. Thus, the industrialization of the country's national creditors would come apart and difficult to develop the infrastructure and productive power.

Financial Buble

Nowadays, the policy of financial liberalization realized directly with the liberalization of investment liberalization and interest rate does not provide a positive impact for economic growth. If ditilik the historical, interest rate liberalization began undoing fixed exchange rate system a la Bretton Woods in the early years 70an. And in the years that started the exchange rate float system / free (freely floating system). Capital and financial system has been and will be integrated with the demands of international financial liberalization policies [2] on component: domestic liberalization [3] and international [4]. Currently, the global financial market has moved beyond initial function: facilitating trade and investment across countries. Financial market is no longer a mechanism to provide savings for the investment sector of production, thus less related to the real flow of resources and long-term investment sector production. Development of the exchange rate system and free flow of capital membengkaknya short-term (short term capital) in various developing countries of the electrical current (read: logical consequences) are not growing the real sector. Capital-capital that is not ditanamkan in various industrial goods and services because they do not provide a significant advantage? Of course because of low purchasing power people. Melimpahnya goods (over-production) and speculator products (goods), which play the market in the interests unilaterally, plus the low level of consumer purchase, has brought capitalist international and local arena to play in the foreign exchange market, portfolio, bond, derivatives and capital. The situation makes a strong-weak currency exchange rate of the country into a place games investor and speculator's financial capital. And they get a big advantage (pelipatgandaan capital), without the production process from the arena. Mandatory cycle kegilaannya to capitalism and meraup would bring maximum benefits capitalist finance (finance) on the brink kehancurannya.


The situation is not handled by either. The government would increase the Interest of Indonesia up to 8.75%. Of course, in the classical view: that, with increasing interest rates will attract investment into the country. This policy option would not strengthen the rupiah in a position to increase the mobilization of funds (savings), but the slump inability to pay creditors on the Bank loan. One option is contradictory in the middle of the weak growth of national industry and trade.


Indeed, on the one hand, the increase in Interest Rates Indonesia akan attract capital (inflows) to foreign entry, especially in the position of the low interest rates in developed countries (the United States and Japan, the interest rates are 4%). But the capital does not enter ditanamkan but as a real investment in the portfolio, foreign exchange, bonds, property speculator, and credit consumption. Moreover, the penetration of foreign direct investment? Which is expected to be the spearhead of the market economy (for the liberal sect), as considered sangup push up the national economy? Inverted proportionate to the level of penetration of foreign Investment portfolio, which blister. Economically, penggelumbungan flow of direct foreign capital investment is vulnerable to conditions that does not directly provide positive benefits for the development of industrial real; first, that capital does not stand in the entrance of a country in a long time. Nowadays, hot money can be moved from one country to another country in a fast time. But take a long time to use the capital for the production process. That is why foreign direct investment which does not have incoming connections to the positive development of the industry. In fact, in some developing countries, increased interest rates and liberalization of flow invetasi forced to pay these costs as much as 10-20% of Brutonya Domestic Product (GDP) for portopolio and bond.


Inflation portfolio investment and hot money will trigger a national balance sheet instability and devaluation of rupiah currency. Conclusions can not be disconnected from the facts: the weak national financial system and the low national produktiftas. The weakness of a country's financial system will facilitate the speculator and the stock immediately to attract capital from the capital to a country that has a value of the interest rate that tantalize. Balance sheet and financial instability and further devaluation of rupiah akan memperparah industry because of the rising cost of national import.
Whether the crisis that occurred in Mexico (Tequila Efect), in Chile, Bath and the devaluation in Thailand resulted from the free exchange rate system and capital outflows. The crisis has been successfully strike crisis in many countries in Asia (including Indonesia). Withdrawal of capital from large-scale land forward to developing countries, and vice versa, has lead to instability currency developing countries. Contagion effects of financial market instability and even crisis in tow countries that have enough foreign exchange reserves. Lack of defense financial system lead to destruction of real industrial countries because of growing energy productive (especially that high) to be expensive to import (in a matter of dollar exchange rate). Pelipatgandaan one currency, on the one hand, and the destruction of developing country currencies, on the other hand, has caused the value of a product in high rebound extraordinary power to buy the goods.


Debt and Free Trade


Potential crisis that is affected by economic factors buble can not be released from the reserves and foreign exchange trading system as the one of the country. As part of the country's policy on the wieldy neoliberalisme, Indonesia, the serious distribute payments of debt in the budget of foreign debt repayments plus basic fee plus the cost commitmen, the cost of goods and capital expenditure, payment of bond debt and banking sector, privatization and cost. The concept of financial management policies are not emphasized in the development of national industry and to pre-condition. It was seen from the low budget distibusi for social subsidies (such as education and health). Indeed, this is a top view of the liberal sect that negate state intervention in economic life? Economic growth given sebebas-free on factors in the market itself.


Situation resulted in the country does not have the financial resilience of the national capital because of too many who fled abroad (capital flights). If a similar pattern continues, and as such kecenderungannya? Country will not be able to withstand the heat flow of capital entry and exit drastically, even to influence the effect tularnya though.


Indeed, the government can reduce the level of capital flights, of course, on the basis of political will (political will), how to lobby with the international community, such as that undertaken by Nigeria (although can not be separated from the influence of pemogokkan labor-labor state oil company); or cutting contest It is unlawful debt / unclean (hair cut debt). Such, the illegitimate debt (debt oudious) the Soeharto government, approved by Sumitro closed and World Bank reports: Soeharto government misuse of funds at least have a loan of 30% since the beginning of the reign until he was overthrown, in the form of the other, India can actually defend deletion part of the debt with the fact that the fight for Indonesia can be classified as Heavily Indebted Poor Country (HIPC). Instead, the hard-working done by the government fully implement the program is a conversion of debt (Debt Swapt), the funds come from the State Budget. Debt conversion program in the practice do not get achievements for maximum target fragmentatif and that too many abuses by the bureaucrats budget.


On other factors, stock trading dialectics (in the pattern of production capitalism) requires full liberalization of trade rules and systems, which indeed has given a negative influence on the growth of the national capital industry. System and the rules of trade are made through deceit-treaty negotiations (in the round of World Trade Organization council / WTO), has meliberalisasikan trade goods, services, tariffs and duties. Countries that economic growth in low-quality technology and human resources have been forced to compete in a fully open market, to fight with foreign capital and products that are produced with modern technology and capital.


Post-Soeharto government, Indonesia, the dijerumuskan into kedikatoran foreign capital, have fall on the liberalization of trade that some industrial sectors and pertaniannya. That have been seen for several years, this is the manufacturing sector: bangkrutnya companies textiles and textile products, wood, and shoes; roll tikarnya some companies with capital electronic medium, as a political dumping is also done by companies with China's textile products and electronic; similar case also occurred in agriculture and animal husbandry. WTO, the General Agreement on Agriculture, has been determine that some agricultural products and is not allowed to diliberalisasikan. at this time, inclusion of agricultural products and livestock, plus practice speculator and smuggling of products, has destroyed the price of agricultural products of farmers in the country, besides, indeed, also caused ketidaksanggupannya to compete with foreign agricultural products (a condition that logical factors as lack of capital, low technologies, land fragmentation, and lack of production infrastructure (eg roads, electricity, transport facilities, etc.).


At this level, trade liberalization has resulted in deindustrialisasi, so the fact capital flight (outflows) middle (mid term capital) in various industrial sectors can not be dodged. Conditions only increase the length of unemployment row. And, on the other hand, lower-level graphics capabilities people purchasing power. Trade liberalization, in addition to (also) lead to outflows, also lead to instability and the supply of goods in the market price. Because, in the system, the government may not have the authority to set the monopoly supply of goods and the price in the market. At this stage, dilenyapkannya with the government monopoly on the market, liberalization of trade has been light-speculator speculator goods. So, give the power of trade liberalization on the trader and speculator to set the market, both in the number of pasokannya game and the price level. Reduction of government authority to make the government lose the market to set the right stock cooking oil, sugar, rice, oil on the market. Especially (in the case of oil) the amount of production of CPO is not the biggest company of the country but come from foreign companies owned by Malaysian plantation.


Energy crisis


Energy, as an important part in the production and distribution, providing an important role for economic growth and prosperity of a country. In such conditions, Indonesia, which indeed has much potential energy that can support growth industrialisasinya, thus experiencing difficulty. Phenomena dead light (blackout) in some areas, scarcity of oil and gas, fertilizer-closing company that requires a lot of gas to extend production-tier economic problems in this country. There are several factors that influence the lack of supply of energy for industry, distribution, mobility, households and tourism, among others: a) since the Soeharto period, the lack of infrastructure, production capacity, efficiency and management structure of production, and quality of human resources has become a problem classic in the energy industry; b) energy production benefits (such as when the oil shock) is not as important for the development of upstream industries (Upstream) disubtitusikan except for the budget or other abused by the bureaucrats; c) the lack of development of research technology. Post-economic crisis, the government issued a policy that is no longer aligned to the Iptek, as shown in the Budget allocation. Research budget Iptek Budget, before the economic crisis, that only 0.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), in the post-crisis, a sharp slump 0.05 percent; d) is not running the program of conservation and energy diversification (with the concept of cheap, safe, and modern); e) liberalization energy industry (oil, gas, electricity), which is expected to develop industry-upstream is valid vice versa. Energy industry that is growing in the downstream (downstream industries); f) industrial liberalization reduces the role of energy state / government to control the production and distribution of energy targets. As a result, energy products sold abroad (such as oil and gas) with the portion of the supply shortfall caused oil and gas in the country; g) the number of players then the chain, on the other hand, will enrich the practice speculator. Practices of oil and gas speculator, who structured the international community, resulted in the need of oil or gas that must be met, bought from overseas? Because of low energy production in the country-level price so high membumbung; h) the length of the bureaucracy pasokkan (supply) to the energy consumer (large, medium, and small)-not through the state monopoly company-cause terhambatnya distribution to the various regions; i) vertical fragmentation (central-local)-consistency of the logic of decentralization [5] and lead to deconcentration-one situation the excess areas energy (surplus) and the lack of a (deficit) pasokkan energy.


If no changes are fundamental in addressing problems of energy crisis, it will cause swelling in the cost of production and distribution of various industrial sectors and the dependence on energy supplies from the international market.


So, some of the above factors:
Swelling financial (economic buble) and trade liberalization will deepen the more buying power and the inability deindustrialiasi [indicated with bangkrutnya companies and termination of employment (PHK) mass]. Escape the short-term foreign capital (short term capital outflows) will be followed by the destruction of the rupiah currency and runaway capital middle (mid term capital outflows), which exists in the industry because of high real cost of energy (which is purchased in dollars), and high energy productive berteknologi high. All the more, the policy of trade liberalization have been hit products in the country. So, the trend of the crisis (as of 1998) can potentially occur. Especially when there is no improvement in the structure of the national economy significantly, a behavior that can practice the capitalist big speculator. And adherence to the government run the trade liberalization of goods and services to make destruction of the market in the country, in the middle of the weak competitiveness because of the low-production technology and quality of produktifnya.


Top of the situation, various concessions-concessions and imperialist agents, either in the form of a program or MDG's Askeskin, BLT, BOS, BOP still can not hold the potential for fire resistance pendindasan anti-imperialism. The imperialist government agency does not have enough capital for the concession and the concession-fix-fix (ilusif) is. Not to mention the culture of corruption that people take advantage of poverty as a means to enrich themselves for the country's bureaucrats. Sounds flat because the cost of adding rush after the BLT, BOS, BOP is the reality of practice search unilateral advantage, which is still a culture in this country.


Socio-economic reality at this time proves that the views Milton Friedman and Frederich Von Hayek-that there will be a perfect equality of competition in the region-level (level of playing field), which will balance all the commodities (convergence), thus go on inequality level of competition in various games (divergensi). Thus, "globalization" capital goods and services become diglobalkan. But monopolized by a few owners of capital. Finally, the growth with a view to the bottom of the will (tricle down effect) is simply a dream.


Politics


The situation will open the opportunity radikalisasi mass populis with the character, the expression on the suppression structured imperialism. Radikalisasi-radikalisasi the developing situation on the still-economic conditions in the spontaneous-fragmentatif. Radikalisasi with such a character that has a uterus can potentially berkesadaran anti-imperialism, although not fully. Suppression strukturalnya facilitate spontaneous movements until the awareness of anti-imperialism (of course, as well as the potential, when processed by pioneering political).


In the situation at this time, imperialism and oppression radikalisasi (movement) spontaneous-fragmentatif has provided a foundation in the political elite (bourgeoisie) in the program and receive anti-foreign occupation. The situation can not be released also on the development of leaders, government and alternative systems that are developing in Latin America (Brazil, Bolivia, Cuba, Argentina, and Venezuela). Daring leaders of the country in implementing a policy outside the mainstream view of providing positive inspiration to the elite. But, indeed, we can not blow lebihkannya to the acceptance and implementation of character programatik such as Soekarno period (for example). Political elites at this time receiving the influence-positive from the lands and use them in the interest of looking for before the sheer popularity of the poor oppressed people, in an effort to become a "national bourgeoisie" or, even, to menaikan bargaining (bargain) as brokers, asset sales assets of the nation. This must be done by the whole block elite (bourgeoisie) in the interests of the sejatinya: become a major agent international capitalism. Several political factors that mempengaruhinya: 1) post-Election 2004, in the national political map, there is not at all a political-economic domination of the bourgeois elite who lead; 2) economic-polarization can not be released from the inability to lead reformis fake and a return element strength New Order (Golkar-Military). In such situations, there are several things that must be done by the elite bourgeois in order to fully become the main agent imperialism in this country, namely: a) mengeliminir development of alternative political force that is growing. This is done in order not to complicate their position in the political fight in the political elections in 2009; b) the gentle power of bourgeois political power and their political tool through the political system that requires a formal administrative; c) Building blocks of a solid bourgeois politics (PDIP-Golkar coalition military + ) but benign process to ensure victory of their feet in the Province / City / District for the penetration of capital has been moving more freely, depth, and extends to the territory-the territory. Of course the name of stability and pluralism, even though the two things are contradictory to be a runway pijak. Position like that, of course, akan diamini by mperialisme, because it's easier and safer in economic-political power when the political authorities do not fragmentatif; d) the method will still be political dibingkai in the name of nationalism, the integrity of the nation, demagogi populis, political stability and economic and resistance to Islamic fundamentalism. Only with the slogan-the slogan is political dominance they will have the political support for large-scale among the broad mass of people. Can do?


Post-Soeharto throwing, democratic space has begun to open. Although not fully open because of the remnants of New Order and the military would rise up again. Interest and efforts in order to pull the open space of democracy selebar-wide, area-width, full-full occurs between the remaining Orba and the military, on the one hand, against the democratic (democratic movement), on the other.


Today, space is still open democracy, although still not fully and often disturbed by the group of civilian militia reactionist (FPI, GPK, GEPAKO, FBR, FAKI and others), who became a man of the remnants Orba and the military. Space but democracy is still very formal and procedural, full of deceit? Only in the interests of elite domination and claim political imperialism? Not in the perspective of democracy (full-full) and the welfare of developing nations as a condition seutuhnya. Apart from such a situation, achievements-achievements today is the result of the weary toil struggle for years to open a democratic space that is closed before the meeting. Is wrong when not using the space of democracy (democratic space) or leave it. For, democracy may be space that is open at this time (although it has limitations) because bangkitnya akan narrow (read: restoration) the strength of the rest of the Orba and military anti-democracy. It is very important for the entire movement tersadarkan to take advantage of the democratic space that has been there for the purpose of open space of democracy is more more more knowledgeable (read: full-full), or to utilize mengkampanyekan alternative programs, build an alternative political force, and popularize figures political alternative for the people (as the left and the nationalist movement popularize Soekarno as leaders in the alternative meeting Ikada).


Mass Movement and Awareness


Or use the process in various arena and momentum, as a consequence of loyalty to the principles (theory), must still see clearly the strength and weakness of the movement in the subjective point of view at this time (based on the influence of historical heritage). And still see the threats that would undermine the purpose of the movement? A full-room full democracy, propaganda alternative programs, and train people and movements that berkemampuan realize the democratic, modern, fair, and prosperous. During the New Order, and a variety of issues appear to affect the movement at this time, namely: deideoligisasi, depolitisasi, deorganisasi and retention pengaburan history. And, more parahnya again, progressif the culture of a nation born of a struggle since before and after independence (pre-New Order). These conditions affect the movement, among others: poor conception of the struggle (the program and the strategy-tactics), the organizational structure is not expanded, elitist in nature, sektarian, and mobilization (radikalisasi) its still fragmentatif (in pieces) and spontaneous (economic) . However, the democratic movement has strengthened the results of involvement in the struggle with the people, namely: a) mass action has been a cultural resistance to all sectors of society; b) awareness of anti-militarism and the New Order (albeit not fully / total) still terpatri in mind people; c) distrust of the self-styled reformis? the trick seems able to bring people to the condition of democratic, modern, fair, and prosperous; d) ketidaksukaan crimes against militia Civil reactionary; e) is able to overthrow the local government (Bupati, groove) and the force arrested corruptor with radical methods (mass action) against the acceptance of anti-colonialism the new program (or nationalism in the early level of awareness) may have been received by the poor, middle class and even by a few political elite (bourgeoisie) although, in this matter, does not want to blow up bourgeois sense of nationalism is the form of anti-imperialism struggle of the concrete, or a nation re-building style and character Soekarno; but only on the effort to search for popularity alone, for political advantage on the Pagelaran Election 2009. That is why many banner banner pro-and anti-poor people neoliberalisme held by many political parties bourgeoisie, such as that done by the PDIP. Like any character in the program implementation and acceptance of political elite in this period now, still has political advantages for the movement: use it for the sake of expanding awareness of anti-imperialism.


Strengths and weaknesses should be processed in such a way to confront the threat of being developed. Threats are: First, menguatnya remains of the New Order, the military, with the (trend) in the lead PDIP-Golkar coalition + military to dominate the national political map. Primary interest can not be released to eliminate the interests of the bourgeoisie and other groups also are dangerous to the alternative political and economic. And, sejatinya interest is to be the agent imperialist, colonialist puppet, komprador the main (most). In justify their political position, PDIP-Golkar coalition always stressed that the purpose of the majority coalition (PDIP-Golkar) is for the prosperity and pluralism under the auspices of stability (their dominance). Two contradictory things: stability, prosperity, and not a pluralism, a pluralism of welfare and is DEMOCRACY. (eg: factory labor may not be able to get the wages, benefits, health and home, when appropriate to gather kebebasannya (organized) and demanded (engage) hinder been in the name of stability.) Second, menguatnya religious fundamentalism (the intellectual expression of religion on crisis capitalism) that reject the freedom of expression; reject sekularisme; reject democracy. Third, the civilian militia Menguatnya reactionary movement which impedes the development of alternative ways of violence / anti-democracy. Fourth, the penetration of capitalism capital increase, which resulted in the destruction of economic, environmental, social and cultural.


The conditions are not also eliminate the opportunity for the democratic movement to grow, and extends lead. So far he is able to do some things, namely: 1) the mobilization process fragmentatif-spontaneous (economic) that integrates into the mobilization, political, and national / international. -View from the result, the majority radikalisasi that appears is the fruit of resistance oppression capitalism (foreign or local), so it's easy to be attracted to the anti-imperialist struggle and anti-capitalism. Of course, as far as pioneering political movement can mengolahnya; 2) can repel imperialist superpower agent, PDIP-Golkar coalition (plus military), which would force mengeliminir alternative way to kill democracy with "democracy" (to make the Law and Politics of Political System strict procedural and representation in a democracy; 3) maximize the various arena / event / interest in the stage to the maximum mengkampanyekan programs and methods that radical, militant and democratic.


Footer:
[1] Washington Consesus (WC) made in 1989 (although, in 1990, a new called the Washington Consensus), born from the meeting's International Finance Institution in Washington who bermarkas. WC and the 10 steps, three of which are part of the macro policy? Budget discipline; interest rate liberalization and exchange rate policy based on the market. While the other seven are part of the structural policy? Privatization, deregulation, import liberalization, foreign direct investment liberalization, tax reform, guarantee ownership rights, and redistribusi public funds on education and health sectors.
[2] financial liberalization in Indonesia began in 1987 with a discharge package in October, followed by rising Package Package in October and December in 1988.
[3] The meaning of domestic liberalization: the active market forces by reducing the state role in the financial sector.
[4] The meaning of international financial liberalization: the removal of controls and regulations in the planting (inflows) and fugitive (outflows) capital. With the key component, among others: a) the interest rate deregulation; b) removal of credit controls; c) bank privatization and state-owned financial instiusi; d) the exemption way in the private sector, banks and foreign financial institutions into domestic financial markets ; e) The foreign exchange liberalization traffic, allowing the foreign exchange cross-border countries.
[5] Law No. 22 Year 1999 on regional government.